27 December 2011
The phrase that has been used for the longest time in the NBA is "the mid-range game is gone in the NBA." What most people don't understand is that the 18-foot jump shot is not worth it. The expected points from a mid-range jumper is lower than expected points from a lay-up. If a lay-up isn't available, why not look for a three-pointer? The list of those that should be taking long two-pointers is short - and only one Bulls player from last year is on the list - Kyle Korver. Evidence? Check this out.
So CJ Watson - your 34% from long-two range is way behind your three-point range at 39.3%. His two-point shot expectancy is 0.68 while his three-point expectancy is 1.18. It's just baffling. It's really not hard to understand. Oh, and Ronnie Brewer? Don't shoot the ball unless it's a dunk. Check that link again - not pretty.
Unless your name is Rip Hamilton, try to get the ball into the paint. Getting the ball into the paint leads to either a drive and kick, a free throw attempt, or an easy bucket. We're not doing that, and that's why we're not very good right now.
But, this will all change, and we're going to be fine this year. It's just that the earlier we understand the issue with long two-pointers, the better.
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